Irrigation enables Tyler Stewart to boost his corn yields far above dryland ones. Still, the conservation-minded Fairbury, Nebraska, farmer wants to best use limited water resources on the 20% of farmland he irrigates.
So he decided the farmland he and his wife, Michelle, bought in 2010 was an ideal location to install a 19-acre pond. He pulled the trigger this summer and construction began in the fall. Rather than pumping limited groundwater to irrigate, he’ll use captured rainwater to water a share of his farm. “With natural rainfall, there’s no reason the pond shouldn’t fill itself and collect enough water and start irrigating next spring,” Stewart says. The ultimate goal is to catch enough rainfall so he can run up to three pivots from the pond in the future. There’s no guarantee sufficient rainfall will result. Due to the location and the yield increase of 30 bushels an acre of irrigated corn over dryland, Stewart believes the pond will be a worthwhile investment.
He worked with Agren’s PondBuilder software through Land O’Lakes to develop a plan that would help him best manage his resources. Besides providing him a water source, the pond has potential to reduce sediment and nutrients moving downstream. Precision technology allowed Stewart to design a pond that would help his crop productivity plan. It’s that technology that is becoming a larger part of conservation plans, says Tom Buman, CEO of Agren.
Agren partners with service retailers to provide precision technology tools to farmers. “We have to make conservation fit into farmers’ agronomic plans,” says Buman. One tool the company has developed, SoilCalculator, could do just that. It maps soil erosion so you can see what is happening across your fields. “The map helps you understand where and how much erosion is occurring,” says Buman. “You generally know where your more productive areas are. The map gives you a tool to go back and review, and to help you understand where the erosion hotspots are located.”
You are able to enter your various management practices into the program, such as:
It then combines that data with other information, including:
Once all of the information is collected, a map that’s similar to a yield map is created. The map helps you pinpoint areas with excessive erosion. “Then you have to convert that into decision making on how you are going to make a difference,” says Buman. “If you know that one area is highly erodible and not productive, you might want to put it into the CRP.” Other options include adjusting management practices or installing additional conservation practices. The erosion map is another layer that helps you supplement tools like yield maps to help you make decisions.
“You can use it for correlation of your yields and erosion,” he says. Ultimately, it’s an information tool to help you make decisions about your land, says Buman. Unlike a yield map, which changes every year, an erosion map stays more consistent over time. It won’t adjust over a small management change during a growing season, but it will give you an opportunity to check how you are doing at managing a finite resource – soil.
Buman’s goal is to drive down the cost of conservation through tools such as the PondBuilder software that Stewart used and the SoilCalculator. With less expense, he believes you will be able to see multiple options that could benefit your farm. “If you don’t like this option, what’s another option that fits more into your objectives? There’s more than one way to keep nitrogen out of water,” says Buman. “We have to help you, the farmer.”
He thinks precision technology is the best way to do just that.
Where Dicamba Stands for and This Promising Weed-Control System Will Be Closely Watched
A couple of years ago, Mid-South farmers who had been pummeled by glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth raptly listened to a perky sales representative pitching a new herbicide-tolerant system.
The rep accurately pledged that this dicamba-based system would control pesky pigweeds. What about volatility? Well, this system would feature new system formulations that would slice this dicamba drawback. What if an applicator applied an existing dicamba formulation on dicamba-tolerant soybeans? Not to worry. “That would be off-label and illegal,” correctly said the sales rep. The weed scientist who relayed this story to me noted that a grizzled old agronomist sitting in back wasn’t taking this well. “All it takes is one person to screw it up,” he grumbled. Or more. Last summer, thousands of soybean acres in Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee exhibited symptoms of dicamba damage. Although federal regulators in 2016 approved dicamba-tolerant soybean varieties under Monsanto’s Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans, they didn’t approve dicamba formulations that match it. Complaints center around allegations that unlabeled formulations of dicamba not labeled for use on Xtend soybeans injured neighboring non-Xtend crops. So what now? Here’s where dicamba-tolerant systems stand for 2017.
At least two dicamba formulations fit Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans
Federal regulators have approved Monsanto’s XtendiMax with VaporGrip Technology and BASF's Engenia, both low-volatile dicamba formulations.
Dicamba controls some weeds better than others
On marestail, it improves on the traditional burndown tankmix of glyphosate and 2,4-D, says Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Extension weed specialist. It also gives better control on tall and ivyleaf morningglory and common and giant ragweed over glyphosate. Waterhemp? Most university weed-control guides list dicamba as good or very good on waterhemp, but not excellent as was glyphosate. Dicamba can improve control of pigweed species, but it will never be as effective as glyphosate once was prior to resistance, says Hager.
Applicators better read labels
Specifics on boom height, sprayer speed, and nozzle type and buffers exist.
No tankmixing is allowed
The pplicators will be required to apply new dicamba formulations alone. Other herbicides must be applied separately, says Hager.
Little third-party yield data exists
Farmers will need to largely depend on the word of seed companies regarding yield potential.
Low volatility won’t curb all off-target potential
New dicamba formulations do feature low volatility. However, no uniqueness exists about their ability to physically drift during application, says Hager.
The feds are watching
The new registration for dicamba use in dicamba-tolerant soybeans expires November 9, 2018. Hager says EPA documents indicate the registration will automatically expire “. . . unless the EPA determines before that date that off-site incidents are not occurring at unacceptable frequencies or levels.” The upshot? Be careful. Continued use of dicamba in dicamba-resistant soybeans hinges on those who use it. Abuse via off-target movement could cause the feds to nix it, says Hager. This tool is too valuable to fritter away.
Agriculture Policy: ‘Farmer’s Sons Don’t Want To Be Farmers’
Researchers asked to generate viable solutions to address problems of the agriculture sector. Agriculture Secretary Muhammad Mahmood said on Wednesday that researchers should come up with viable policy solutions to various problems facing the agriculture sector.
Addressing a joint meeting of the Steering Committee and the Council for Research and Policy at the University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF), the secretary said the agriculture sector was facing problems of low productivity, water scarcity, shrinking cultivable area and poor marketing. He said that Pakistan had a fertile land and a favourable ecosystem, but it was not benefiting from them. He said the government was trying to solve the problems facing the farming community. He said the farming community must be educated about the use of modern farming methods.
The US-Pakistan Centre for Advanced Studies in Agriculture and Food Security (USPCAS-AFS) at the UAF had arranged the meeting. Former National Assembly speaker Syed Fakhar Imam co-chaired the meeting. The secretary praised the steps being taken by the UAF for improvement of the agriculture sector and laid stress on the need for collaboration between the Agriculture Department and the USPCAS-AFS. He said that collaboration would make the Agriculture Department more efficient. Imam called for joint efforts to solve agriculture sector’s problems relating to water scarcity and quality of soil and seed. He said that farmland, labour, technology and water were major components of successful agriculture. He said that California had faced drought for five years, but it had strategies in place to deal with the situation. He said that an irrigation policy was needed to address water scarcity. He said that wheat, rice and cotton were being cultivated on 70 per cent of the farmland in Pakistan. He said there was a need for diversifying the agriculture sector. He said that agriculture in Pakistan needed a paradigm shift.
UAF Vice Chancellor Iqrar Ahmad Khan said that farmers must be trained to improve agriculture. He said agriculture should be knowledge-based and the focus should be on improvement of farmers’ financial condition. He said there was a need to focus on water, energy and food security and strengthen the production, processing, storage and distribution systems. He said it was a matter of concern that a farmer’s son did not want to become a farmer because the financial incentive was lacking in the agriculture sector. Khan said the UAF had introduced three new degree programmes; one in seed science, another in climate change and the third one in human nutrition. He said that five chairs had been set up under the USPCAS-AFS. These would help address policy issues. He said the UAF was doing research for development of the agriculture sector. He said that Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had formed a committee to develop the agriculture policy.
Dr. Dost Muhammad Baloch, vice chancellor of the Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, underlined the need for training courses for farmers and livestock owners. He said that information centres should be set up at the district level and farmers should be imparted training there. Horticulture Board of Pakistan Chairman Hassan Ali Chaniho called for a platform where people from various provinces, universities and farming community could meet, listen to each other’s problems and discuss solutions. Progressive farmer Syed Faisal Hassan said the agriculture sector was facing seed-related issues. He said there was a huge difference in per acre yields in Pakistan and those in other countries. He said that farmers must be given respect. USPCAS-AFS chief of party Dr Bashir Ahmad, American scientist Dr Nancy, UAF Registrar Muhammad Hussain and Treasurer Umer Saeed were also present at the meeting.
Ergot Tolerances Set For Chickpeas, Fababeans
Chickpeas and fababean crops graded in Canada will have a new maximum tolerance for ergot next year, even though the cereal disease doesn’t occur in either crop. The Canadian Grain Commission on Wednesday announced an ergot tolerance of 0.05 per cent for all grades of fababeans and chickpeas in Western Canada effective Aug. 1, 2017, and for all grades of fababeans in Eastern Canada effective July 1, 2017. The commission said its concern for ergot — a fungal cereal disease, producing alkaloids which are toxic to people and livestock — is that cross-contamination could occur in chickpeas or fababeans during handling. Setting a 0.05 per cent tolerance for ergot in fababeans and chickpeas “will help guarantee the safety of Canadian grain” and lines up with other pulse crops in Canada’s Official Grain Grading Guide.
Grasshopper, army worm damage
The CGC on Wednesday also announced a tighter grading tolerance for grasshopper and army worm damage in three grades of wheat, effective Aug. 1, 2017. At that date, the tolerance level for such damage in No. 3 Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS), No. 3 Canada Western Hard White Spring and No. 3 Canada Northern Hard Red wheat will be cut to six per cent, from the current eight per cent. Research has shown eight per cent grasshopper and army worm damage in those wheats “can impact end-use functionality,” the CGC said. The CGC on Wednesday also announced new standard samples for No. 1 Canada Yellow soybeans, Nos. 1 and 2 Canada Yellow peas and No. 2 Canada Green peas, and new mildew guides for Nos. 1, 2 and 3 CWRS wheat, Nos. 1, 2 and 3 Canada Western Amber Durum and Nos. 1 and 2 Canada Western Red Winter wheat.
Take another Look At Organic and Consider Taking the Plunge
Chickpeas and fababean crops graded in Canada will have a new maximum tolerance for ergot next year, even though the cereal disease doesn’t occur in either crop. The Canadian Grain Commission on Wednesday announced an ergot tolerance of 0.05 per cent for all grades of fababeans and chickpeas in Western Canada effective Aug. 1, 2017, and for all grades of fababeans in Eastern Canada effective July 1, 2017. The commission said its concern for ergot, a fungal cereal disease, producing alkaloids which are toxic to people and livestock is that cross-contamination could occur in chickpeas or fababeans during handling. Setting a 0.05 per cent tolerance for ergot in fababeans and chickpeas “will help guarantee the safety of Canadian grain” and lines up with other pulse crops in Canada’s Official Grain Grading Guide.
Over the past couple of years, I have been developing and promoting new marketing tools to help farmers prove the concept of sustainability to consumers, and to use that to their advantage in pricing. Most recently, my efforts have targeted helping those transitioning into organic.
I have always been honest and unbiased in my work when communicating market signals to farmers. To me, consumer preference can no more be ‘right or wrong’ than supply or demand can be ‘too big or too small.
It just is what it is. An analyst’s work is to understand all the relevant information available, and to use this knowledge to predict the price trends that will follow. The economics of organics are quite dynamic at this juncture. In recent years, there has been a steep rise in imports of certified organic crops — mostly corn and soybeans — into North America to make up for the widening gap between domestic supply and demand. Countries including Turkey, Romania, Argentina and India have become low-cost bulk exporters of certified organic grain and there is, so far, enough integrity behind the organic certification of these shipments to satisfy the sustainability requirements of food companies in North America. Imports are coming into the U.S. at a faster rate than domestic organic crop production is rising. This is commodifying the organic market space quickly. It had traditionally operated on small, tight supply chains, thick farmer-buyer relationships, and highly variable pricing. Now it looks more like the western Canadian special crops trade, only with another piece of paper attached to the contract.
With commodification, organic crop prices will stabilize through arbitrage. Bulk marketing outlets will open up alongside existing supply chains for niche branded products. Statistics will become available around supply, demand, and cash prices enabling market analysts to better predict future trends in organic crop markets. This evolution of the organic market space represents an opportunity for conventional farmers keen to try something new, and get ahead of the risks inherent in not providing full transparency to buyers and consumers. Around field activities and farm inventory management, technology (such as farmathand.com) might allow our sector to catch up quickly. However, to avoid new regulations being imposed, it is an inescapable next step for all farmers to start tracking and sharing field records and bin inventories with buyers, processors and consumers all the way down the supply chain. Conventional crop production practices may not need to change, but nor can they remain hidden. Consumer confidence in the organic sector is attached to proven, long-standing transparency and integrity of organic food supply chains. Resulting from that, organics are enjoying healthy premiums and accelerating demand.
Farmers in Western Canada are very well suited to cater to this new growth market. The competitive edge is in the diverse mix of food crops within existing rotations, familiarity with acreage-based production contracts, sophisticated on-farm storage systems, and the region’s proximity to the U.S. market. This is arguably the largest and fastest-growing food market trend in the world today. Consumer research strongly indicates that buyers of ‘organic’ closely associate the brand with ‘local.’ Canada is not considered ‘foreign’ in the same light as overseas origins because consumers who choose organic and local do so in part to avoid long-distance shipping of food. At the end of the day, organic and conventional farmers are going to need — and to want — to coexist happily amidst the period of growth ahead. There remains more work to be done to achieve this, for example around cross-contamination, which can be quite penalizing financially and difficult to plan around. For conventional farmers, it’s the threat of weed seeds. For organic farms, it’s spray drift.
In closing, this isn’t about organic being better than conventional. This is about a response to legitimate market demand. I wish for every conventional farmer in Western Canada to start looking at this space with an open mind, seeking new information, working with their organic neighbours, and to seriously consider taking the plunge. The market wants to buy a lot more organically produced crops grown in North America, and Western Canada is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the opportunity.
Running drying fans continuously causes spoilage, costs money
Running grain aeration fans continuously: what’s wrong with that? The crop is in the bins and the fans are turned on. No field is so even that a little averaging isn’t important. A few too many weed seeds from near the slough and some later grain from along the ditch. Air is important to balancing the bin. Grain is cooled and conditioned and ready for short- or long-term storage. Right? Running the aeration fan continuously has been the conventional wisdom since aeration fans came into existence.
The truth is that no one really knew what was going on and that eventually the grain would come down in moisture content. However, there also was this lingering feeling that there must be times when drying was occurring and times when it was not. I have heard many times that one must keep their fans running because if you stop it, the moisture layer will collapse and a crust layer will form. So, maybe it is safer to just leave it on. And since we don’t really know when the conditions for drying are, maybe it is best to just leave it on. Let’s address this issue first.
In all the data we have collected at Indian Head, Sask., since 2007, we have never seen a distinct drying layer, or moisture band. We have certainly seen the bottom dry first, and in many cases at the end of the trial run, the top of the bin is still tough, while the bottom is over-dry. However, there is no distinct layer, or even pockets of moisture. The change in moisture from one part of the bin to another is a slowly changing continuum.
And when the fan is shut off, the temperature and moisture of the grain more or less remains constant, or at the very least, changing ever so slowly. Turning the fans off is not the culprit when it comes to creating a crust. However, why should we leave the fans on? We don’t know when the conditions are right for drying. There was a time when this was true. However, research now tells us that we can better manage our aeration systems and our grain inventories. We know the typical diurnal drying cycle, and using a grain calculator can tell us exactly when there are drying conditions and even conditions that create bin condensation. So not knowing when we have a drying condition is no longer a valid excuse for running the fans continuously.
Not only does it cost money to power those fans, but it actually causes spoilage. Grain starts to deteriorate as soon as it comes off the combine. Storing grain can only slow down the spoilage process and there are two things that contribute to spoilage: higher grain temperatures and higher grain moisture.
If you run the fan continuously during the day, there is a very good chance that you will be heating and wetting the grain — the exact things that contribute to spoilage. Instead of conditioning the grain, we are damaging it when we run the fans around the clock and for longer than necessary. In 2009, we did some research with a bin of peas. In the first few hours of operation, the amount of water being removed from the bin was quite high. It was not unusual to have one percent moisture removed from the grain on the first day, but at hour 21, we began to see something strange take place. The amount of water leaving the bin became negative; we were adding water to the bin. We entered a 24 hour cycle of water being removed from the bin and then water added to the bin, in almost equal amounts. After the first 21 hours, essentially no drying was taking place. And to make things worse, we were adding the moisture during the day, as well as heating the grain. To see a graphic representation of this research, visit this column online at producer.com. A grain free aeration calculator is available at planetcalc.com/4959/. It is based on res
Tweaking How Plants Manage Crisis Boosts Photosynthesis
New way to help cope with scorching sunlight could lead to more bountiful crops. Enhancing just three genes helps plants harvest more light, raising new hopes for developing crops that can keep up with food demands from a crowded planet. Genetically engineered tobacco plants, chosen to test the concept, managed the unusual feat of growing 14 to 20 percent more mass meaning more crop yield than untweaked plants, says Krishna Niyogi of the University of California, Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
The gains came from inserting different versions of three genes that control how quickly plants ramp back up to full energy-harvesting capacity after going into a protective mode to protect themselves from too-bright sunlight, researchers report in the Nov. 18 Science. Bottom of Form
Among results published so far, “to my knowledge, this is the first example where crop growth has been enhanced by improving photosynthesis,” says plant physiologist John Evans at Australian National University in Canberra, who wasn’t part of the new project. Photosynthesis, the basic green chemistry for converting the sun’s energy into food, isn’t a perfectly efficient process. And the quest to improve efficiency by manipulating the interlocking steps of more than 100 reactions in living crops has been complex. “We can make things worse, but this is the first time we can make something better,” Evans says.
The underlying idea for the tobacco experiment came from an appreciation of how light and shade dance over leaves throughout the day in a farm field. Sudden blasts of intense sunlight are dangerous stuff; an overload can lead to chemical scorching in a plant’s light-catching chloroplasts. So when the sun’s movement or a toss from a breeze suddenly exposes a chloroplast to more sunlight than it can handle, a protection system kicks in.
Comeback champs
The three tobacco plants on the left, genetically modified to recover more quickly from light overloads, grew bigger than their unmodified counterpart on the right. Enzymes in the leaf create a surge of a paprika-colored molecule called zeaxanthin, which helps offload the excess energy as heat. This protection turns on within minutes, but turns off more slowly when the crisis is over, Niyogi says. Restoring full photosynthesis takes a lot more than just enhancing the back-to-normal mechanisms. An enzyme called ZEP dismantles protective zeaxanthin when it’s no longer needed. But making the plant simply build more ZEP keeps the protective system from turning on properly in the first place which could put a plant at risk. So researchers also enhanced the enzyme called VDE that builds the protective zeaxanthin. With those two enzymes in balance, a chloroplast can still rid itself of excess energy but get back to full operations faster.
Enhancing a third protein, PsbS, also helped, although researchers don’t yet understand the full details of how. Tobacco plants with modified versions of all three proteins grew bigger, as measured by the weight of dried plant material, than others. The extra growth those genes produced “is a major, economically important gain,” says Maureen Hanson of Cornell University, who is working on a different approach to improving photosynthesis. Now, she says, the new paper’s idea is ready for attempted transfer to plants that people harvest for grains or fruits. Hanson is hopeful that size will increase there, too.
Coaxing plants to calm down faster after a crisis is just one strategy to make photosynthesis more efficient. Evans and Hanson are among those involved in efforts to improve a notoriously slow and distractible photosynthetic enzyme called Rubisco. Other researchers are trying to transfer a naturally more efficient photosynthetic system found in some tropical and subtropical plants, called C4 photosynthesis, into rice, one of the world’s main grains. Older strategies for wringing more food from farms are not on track to keep up with soaring human population and food demands, Niyogi says. The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization has estimated that feeding the world in 2050 could require boosting food production by an additional 70 percent. But the success of all of this, Niyogi notes, may depend on how people around the world feel about genetically engineered food.
Jim Carrington eyes a spread of flowers, forbs, and grasses that greets visitors to the Donald Danford Plant Science Center in St. Louis. “This simulates the Missouri tallgrass prairie,” says Carrington, the center’s president. Undisturbed for tens of thousands of years, these native plants survived explosive rainfalls, bone-chilling winters, and blistering hot summers.
“So, how do we transfer that resiliency to crops?” Carrington asks.
Built rich reservoirs of carbon and organic matter that help store moisture and nutrients.
Contained soil microbes that enabled plant roots to better absorb nutrients.
Supported vegetation that protected the soil surface from wind and water erosion.
Compare that with modern agriculture, where soils are often tilled and host annual crops – at most – seven months out of the year. This system:
There’s good news, though. The same soil that helped the native prairie thrive for centuries can also help your crops endure rough weather patterns. “It took a community of plants and (soil) microbes working together for the native prairie to survive,” says Carrington. Maybe you can’t weatherproof your farm like the native prairie. It’s possible, though, to improve soil resiliency that will help you cope with weather extremes.
Here’s how
Justin Knopf’s (shown right) thinking about tillage changed when a friend at Kansas State University (KSU), Andy Holzwarth, told him how no-till had changed farming around his South Dakota hometown of Gettysburg. “One day, we loaded up three vanloads of students and headed up there,” says the Gypsum, Kansas, farmer. One of their visits was with Dwayne Beck, manager of the Dakota Lakes Research Farm in nearby Pierre. “Beck hits you right between the eyes when he talks,” Knopf says. Beck views tillage as a cataclysmic event that destroys soil pathways, microbes, ground cover, and other vital components crops need to thrive.
“At the same time, I was taking a soil microbiology class from Dr. Charles Rice at KSU,” he says. “I learned about soils’ physical properties and the balance of soil air and water, and how important organic matter is for water infiltration. It was clear that this was the direction we needed to move.” Encouraged by their father, Jerry, Knopf and his brothers, Jeff and Jay, fully made the no-till switch by 2003 for the winter wheat and alfalfa they grew. No-till curbed wind and water erosion and began to build soil carbon and organic matter. A 1% increase in soil organic matter, which consists of 58% carbon, can key a $24-per-acre value boost in increased nutrients and water infiltration, says Jason Miller, an NRCS agronomist from Pierre, South Dakota. However, the Knopfs found no-till is just one step in building resilient soils. “We had an abnormally wet planting season during one of those first few years,” says Justin Knopf. “So while our neighbors tilled and planted, we waited for the muck to dry out under our heavy wheat-residue ground.”
Buffering your farm against weather extremes via no-till only goes so far. The Knopfs’ no-till system thrived once they rotated winter wheat and alfalfa with grain sorghum, soybeans, and corn. “The soil then became more efficient at collecting and storing water,” says Justin Knopf. More intense rotations can be unnerving in often-arid areas like central Kansas. “Short term, we were taking more risk with crops that needed more water,” he says. Over time, though, Knopf says the more intense rotations enable soils to better capture and store water. Improving soils by boosting organic matter 1% mimics adding 1 acre-inch of water to the landscape, says Don Reicosky, a retired USDA-ARS soil scientist from Morris, Minnesota. This enables warm-season grass crops like corn to better endure drought. Not every diverse rotation works. One rotation tested at the Dakota Lakes Research Farm alternated broadleaves like soybeans every other year with grasses like wheat. Although this rotation controlled weeds, it didn’t generate enough soil carbon, says Beck. Instead, rotations with 70% to 80% high-carbon crops (corn or wheat) provide sufficient carbon to rebuild soils and to mimic the native prairie, he says.
The final step in mimicking native prairie resiliency is covering soil year-round. Enter cover crops. The Knopfs began planting them in 2010 on a share of their farm. They plant summer cover crop mixes containing sunflowers, sunhemp, millet, and forage sorghum midsummer after wheat harvest. Meanwhile, they seed fall cover crops like cabbage, triticale, rapeseed, winter peas, vetch, mustard, rye, and barley after corn or soybean harvest in early October.
Cover crops don’t always boost yields. “In dry years, there’s a chance our yields could be hurt due to a lack of moisture,” says Knopf. “In an average year, we will be OK. In wet years, we are thankful to have the cover crop in order to cover the soil and to conserve moisture.” Economic challenges exist, as a cover crop seeding can cost up to $30 per acre. The Knopfs balance short-term economics vs. long-term benefits by simplifying mixes in order to cut seed costs.
“We’re also selective on which farms we plant them,” says Knopf. Long term, the Knopfs believe better soil resiliency through no-till, diverse rotations, and cover crops will help them better endure weather extremes. “We want to capture water efficiently and not have it move off our fields during a heavy rainfall event,” he says. “We, instead, want to store it and have it available when it’s needed. “I think the prairie ecosystem was resilient for our climate,” he adds. “Trying to mimic this while still maintaining a productive agricultural system is the goal we have in mind.”
Roger Zylstra (shown right) points to 40 acres that were once swampy before they were first tiled in 1948. Over time, the tile deteriorated. “So, we went in and pattern-tiled the lowest and wettest areas on tile spaced 50 feet apart,” says the Lynville, Iowa, farmer. “I spent over $20,000 to do it, but I got my investment back quickly. We had four really wet years in a row and my yields in those areas went from 100 bushels to 210 bushels per acre.”
Still, tiling is a tool – not the complete answer – in dealing with excessive water resulting from weather extremes and climate change. Zylstra also teams this strategy with no-till and cover crops in his soil-resiliency strategy. “We have just 4 to 10 inches of medium-brown topsoil and a clay base under it,” says Zylstra. “So it is really critical to maintain what we have and to increase organic matter and water infiltration.” Machinery management also helps Zylstra cope with tight planting windows caused by prolific spring precipitation. He retained an old planter that enables him to plant soybeans when corn is normally planted. He figures planting soybeans in late April spurs a 5- to 7-bushel-yield boost over planting later in May. A 5-bushel-per-acre-yield increase at $9-per-bushel soybeans nets him an extra $45 per acre with no extra cost. Tiling also won’t work everywhere, such as on sodic soils in the Dakotas and Minnesota. “The restricted soil layers of these soils won’t be helped by tile,” says Tom DeSutter, a North Dakota State University (NDSU) soil scientist.
Tiling often costs $700 to $1,000 per acre, too. “That’s hard to justify at today’s prices,” says Kelly Cooper, who manages the Conservation Cropping Systems Project at Forman, North Dakota. “It’s a lot like making chili,” adds Aaron Daigh, an NDSU soil scientist. “Instead of peppers and meat, you might add things to drainage like cover crops and no-till. When you put things together, you can speed things up to where you want to go.”
Corn and soybeans are king in the Corn Belt. So why diversify? In Dwayne Beck’s eyes, the corn-soybean rotation is “whack-a-mole farming.” Its lack of diversity does little to deter pests, says Beck, who manages the Dakota Lakes Research Farm near Pierre, South Dakota. Meanwhile, its soybean component does little to boost beneficial soil carbon. There’s no easy answer when it comes to a third crop. Still, a 2006-2012 Iowa State University (ISU) comparison of three rotations showed there may be some viable options. The following rotations had the following net return per acre to labor and management.
“Diversity is a good thing,” says Matt Liebman, an ISU agronomist who led the study. The more diverse rotations lowered commercial fertilizer applications. Diverse rotations can also help slow the spread of herbicide-resistant weeds through cultural practices and use of herbicides with different sites of action. There’s a catch, though. You need a market for additional crops. More labor is also required for these rotations. “If labor is a major constraint on your farm, additional crops with higher labor demands may not fit well,” says Liebman.
If you’re an Iowa farmer thinking that springs are getting wetter, you’re right. Chris Anderson, an Iowa State University climatologist, analyzed Iowa weather records dating back to 1893. Prior to 1981, just 5% of years had intense spring and summer rainfall patterns, where May and June precipitation could tally up to 13 to 14 inches. Now, such years occur one in every three. Atlantic Ocean warming is spurring this weather pattern. “The general trend is there will be more heavy spring rain days and more summer droughts in Iowa,” says Anderson. This trend through 2045 will mean 10% to 15% fewer suitable fieldwork days for Iowa farmers. This pattern has also curbed corn yields by 4% to 5% and soybean yields by 1% to 2%, on average, across the state since 1981. Climate change will aggravate such weather patterns, says Jerry Hatfield, director of the USDA-ARS National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment. Precipitation pattern disruption and rising minimum temperatures that boost plant respiration have decreased Kansas and Oklahoma wheat yields by 1 bushel per acre annually since 2000, he says. “Climate disruption has increased in the past 40 years, and it is projected to increase even more over the next 25 years,” says Hatfield. Good news exists, though. Boosting a soil’s ability to absorb and to store more water may help offset short-term water stress that curbs Midwestern row-crop yields. “By improving nutrient cycling and water-holding capacity, we can increase the profitability per acre by $75 to $100 per acre,” he says. “It is smart business to be smart about climate change.”
Midwest and Mid-South farm income and expenditures remained under pressure during the third quarter of 2016, according to the latest Agricultural Finance Monitor published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Meanwhile, quality farmland values and ranchland or pastureland values stabilized. The survey was conducted from Sept. 15-Sept. 30, 2016. The results were based on the responses of 34 agricultural banks located within the boundaries of the Eighth Federal Reserve District. The Eighth District comprises all or parts of the following seven Midwest and Midsouth states: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee. The survey also included two special questions focused on the potential for loan repayment issues and possible near-term outcomes.
Farm income, expenditures decrease
The majority of lenders continued to report lower farm income levels compared with a year earlier. Based on a diffusion index methodology with a base of 100 (results above 100 indicate proportionately higher income compared with the same quarter a year earlier; results lower than 100 indicate lower income), the diffusion index for farm income during the third quarter of 2016 stood at 41. While up slightly from the previous quarter’s level of 24, it still represented the 11th consecutive quarter of the farm value index remaining below 100. In addition, proportionately more lenders said they expect farm income in the fourth quarter to be lower than previous year’s levels. In tangent with lower income levels, household spending and capital expenditures also fell in the third quarter, with the household spending index at 59 and the capital spending index at 34. Lenders said they also expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter. “The financially conservative farmer is probably going to survive during this period of low grain and cattle prices. The young farmers with very little equity are really going to struggle,” said a Missouri lender. “It looks like the corn yields are coming in exceptionally high, which will help everyone pay expenses. However, I think there will be very little left to purchase land, machinery, and other equipment.”
Quality farmland values stabilize while cash rents continue to tumble
Quality farmland values were unchanged during the third quarter of 2016, compared with a year ago. In addition, ranchland or pastureland values rose 1.1 percent. However, looking ahead at the fourth quarter, proportionately more lenders indicated they expect values to decline for quality farmland and ranch or pastureland. In contrast, year-over year cash rents for quality farmland dropped 6.1 percent during the third quarter. This followed a drop of 10 percent seen during the second quarter. Meanwhile, cash rents for ranchland or pastureland fell 3.9 percent in the third quarter, following a plunge of 20.7 percent in the second quarter. Rents for quality farmland and ranchland or pastureland are expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter, the lenders said.
Special questions regarding prospects for loan repayment problems
In light of the recent declines in farm incomes, the third quarter survey also asked lenders two special questions regarding expectations of loan repayment problems and potential outcome scenarios for borrowers. The first question asked lenders to identify the loan categories that they believe would have the greatest repayment problems. Close to 60 percent of the lenders responded that operating lines of credit would be the most problematic category; 13 percent said they believed it would be machinery and equipment loans and 9 percent indicated it would be real estate loans. Meanwhile, close to 20 percent said they did not expect any problems. The second question asked the lenders to assess the near-term outcomes for borrowers experiencing repayment problems. More than 50 percent said borrowers would need to put up additional collateral to cover unpaid portions of operating lines of credit. Meanwhile, 22 percent said that borrowers would need to “tighten their belts,” but that the lenders did not expect them to default. Another 19 percent of the lenders said they would expect to see longer-term workouts with their borrowers. Only 3 percent said they would expect their borrowers to have to reduce the size of their operations or exit the farming business, while only another 3 percent thought their borrowers would refinance with another lender.
Think you’ve heard it all about herbicide-resistant weeds? Here are six often-overlooked facts about them to consider as you ready your weed-management plan for the coming growing season in 2017.
1. They’re Not New
“The first resistant weeds to atrazine were reported in 1970,” says Ian Heap, director of the International Survey of Herbicide-Resistant Weeds (weedscience.org). At latest count, 252 weed species worldwide have evolved resistance to herbicides “The interesting thing is, we’ve known how to combat weed resistance for most of that time, too,” Heap says. Herbicide labels from the 1980s – before Roundup Ready was in anyone’s vocabulary – encouraged chemical rotation, full-use rates, and herbicide use only when necessary.
2. More are En Route Every Year
Heap says, on average, 11 new cases of herbicide-resistant weeds are reported annually by weed scientists somewhere in the world. That’s been a steady pace for about 30 years. Up through 2015, 461 unique cases were documented, involving 247 weed species. The reason there are two different numbers – 461 unique cases of 247 weed species – is that many weed species now show resistance to multiple chemicals. For instance, Heap says, wild oat shows resistance to five different herbicide classes, putting it on the list of unique cases five times. Meanwhile, rigid ryegrass is resistant to 11 classes. About 90 weed species are resistant to more than one herbicide. Corn used to be the crop most impacted, but now it’s wheat, Heap says. About 130 weeds that are significant to wheat growers are resistant to at least one herbicide. Corn has about 100 resistant weeds, and soybeans and rice have about 80.
3. They’re Bigger than Glyphosate
Weeds that resist glyphosate in herbicide-tolerant systems may get the most attention. That’s especially true in North America, where Roundup Ready soybeans burst onto the scene and dominated the weed-control market in just a few years, says Heap. The class of herbicides known as ALS inhibitors (such as Pursuit and Accent) actually has had the fastest worldwide growth in resistance in recent years, followed by PSII inhibitors (such as Buctril). Worldwide, there are 56 registered ALS inhibitors on the market and 26 PSII inhibitors, compared with just one glyphosate. Hence, the former two classes lead the resistance race. Part of the problem associated with the Roundup Ready era is that it’s been 30 years since we’ve discovered a new class of herbicides, Heap says. “Glyphosate came along, and people thought it was game over. They (agricultural chemical companies) shut down their discovery programs,” he says.
“What is concerning are the herbicide groups 14 and 27,” says Mike Owen, Iowa State University Extension weed specialist. Group 14 herbicides are the PPO inhibitors (like Cobra and Flexstar). Group 27 herbicides are the HPPD inhibitors (like Balance Flexx and Callisto).
These have been popular alternatives where glyphosate resistance has surfaced. Yet, even in 2011, the estimated percentage of waterhemp in sampled fields estimated Group 14 resistance at 10% to 12%. With group 27, the resistance was estimated at 24% to 27%. Continued use will only raise these numbers.
4. They’re Everywhere
North America does have the most resistant weed cases (over 160 and counting). However, western Europe has over 100 cases now. China is growing fast with over 40 resistant weeds, compared with just 15 in 2010. “Countries with cheap labor sources have the fewest cases of resistant weeds,” says Heap.
5. There are 7 Top Offenders
Of the 32 weed species resistant to glyphosate, only seven actually account for about 99% of the economic losses, says Heap. Here is the biggest offenders list.
For good measure, Heap adds kochia. It dries out and becomes a tumbleweed, spreading seeds as it rolls. It may soon crack his worst-offenders list.
6. You Can Keep Track of Herbicide-Resistant Weeds
A website (weedscience.org) is devoted exclusively to this topic and is managed by Heap. Public and private industry weed scientists in over 80 countries use the site to track new cases with updates and maps by state, region, crops, sites of action, and much more.
Damp, Tough Canola at Risk for Spoilage
Some Prairie canola growers may now be able to get back to their unharvested canola, but the Canola Council of Canada warns that tough or damp canola can still be volatile, even at cooler outdoor temperatures. The Saskatchewan agriculture ministry on Wednesday reported “a few” growers in the province’s southeast were out harvesting canola last weekend, though the province’s harvest has been largely stalled by rain and snow. Manitoba’s agriculture department on Monday pegged the province’s canola harvest at about 95 per cent complete. The Alberta agriculture ministry on Tuesday reported harvest as “practically at a standstill,” but said some growers still hoped to complete harvest over the following couple of weeks.
Growers should monitor their bins “diligently” and try to make a plan for conditioning the incoming crop before taking such canola off the field, as spoilage can occur rapidly, the council said in a release Friday. For example, growers will want to try to under-fill their available bin space, if possible. “The less depth to aerate, the better, because it is possible that spoilage could occur before the aeration front even reaches the peak of the bin.” Even if the air doesn’t have capacity to dry the crop, aeration fans should be kept on, to cool and create uniform temperature conditions in the bin.
Air at temperatures below 10 C has “very limited” drying potential, the council said, so adding supplemental heat if possible can increase the air’s water-holding capacity and thus boost its capacity to dry. If using supplemental heat with aeration, the council said, the air should be warmed to no more than 15 to 20 C. Aeration systems have a relatively low airflow rate, so air that’s too hot could “bake” seeds closest to the fan. It’s “potentially” possible to stabilize a bulk of canola if the temperature is uniformly dropped below 5 C, the council said, but drying the canola now is “better than waiting.”
The ‘good’ fat that makes up a large part of canola and high-oleic canola oil can help reduce belly fat and decrease blood pressure. Canola oil can help reduce belly fat, a new study has found. About 20 per cent of adults in Canada have metabolic syndrome, a cluster of conditions including belly fat that increase the risk of heart disease, stroke and diabetes. Researchers at the University of Manitoba, Laval University, and Penn State University tested five types of oils and found a significant decrease in abdominal fat of subjects on the canola and high-oleic canola oil diets. “These results are likely due to the monounsaturated or ‘good’ fat that makes up a large part of canola and high-oleic canola oil,” said Penny Kris-Etherton, a professor of nutrition at Penn State University who oversaw the study. “This adds to the growing body of research that monounsaturated fat may help to decrease abdominal fat and improve markers of cardiovascular health as well.”
The researchers conducted a clinical trial with 101 participants to compare the effects of five oils: canola oil; high-oleic canola oil; high-oleic canola oil with DHA (an omega-3 fatty acid); a corn and safflower oil blend; and a flax and safflower oil blend. The oils were consumed in smoothies twice a day as part of the participants’ daily diet. The subjects were randomized to a sequence of the five diets, which they followed for four weeks at a time with a period of four weeks in between during which they followed their usual diet. All of the participants had central obesity and at least one additional risk factor for metabolic syndrome — high blood pressure, blood sugar, triglycerides or low “good” HDL cholesterol. At the end of the two-year study, researchers not only saw a significant decrease in abdominal fat mass in those on the canola and high-oleic canola oil diets but also a decrease in blood pressure. “We’ll often see an improvement in other markers of metabolic syndrome, like blood pressure, when abdominal fat is decreased,” said Peter Jones, director of the Richardson Centre for Functional Foods and Nutraceuticals at the University of Manitoba. “The results of this study suggest that using a monounsaturated fat-based oil, like canola oil, may have a positive impact on public health by helping to decrease risk for metabolic syndrome.” The findings were released last month during Obesity Week, an annual conference focused on obesity science.
The centre section is always the heaviest component on any brand of corn planter. As planters continue to grow in size, weight on the centre section grows accordingly. A centre section running on round rubber tires creates ridges, increases the odds of getting stuck in wet conditions and causes soil compaction in all conditions, according to Mike Huck of Soucy Track Systems in Selkirk, Man. “There’s so much weight on the centre section now that wheels are sinking, and that causes all kinds of problems at seeding time,” he said during the Big Iron Farm Show in Fargo.
Farmers are finding that it’s bad business to buy a high volume planter if they can’t fill the compartments. Those who have converted to rubber tracks on their planter or the cart on their air drill say it allows them to work that machine to full capacity. They also have smoother fields for spraying and harvest, which Huck said is a factor people often overlook. In addition to compacting the soil, tires also build a ridge or pile of soil along the sides of their indentation. This ridge can stunt the growth of plants seeded there. “One comment we hear from sprayer operators is that when they’re doing fields seeded with tracks, they can hardly tell where the planter went,” he said. “The tracks almost completely disappear, which is easy to see because one track has a surface that’s about five times bigger than one tire.” Huck said the tracks Soucy designed for Deere have a total gross flat plate of 1,664 sq. inches, while the standard Alliance/Galaxy 11-22.5 12PR tires for the planter have a total gross flat plate of 328 sq. inches.
In terms of pressure on the soil, the Soucy exerts 12.5 p.s.i. per track while the tire setup exerts 63.4 p.s.i.
Soucy says its track system contributes to a fuel saving of four percent when working in dry soil conditions. That benefit increases exponentially when fields get muddy, it says. One farmer inspecting the display unit at Big Iron commented on what he thought was a high number of grease zerks, saying the industry trend is toward more self-lubricating components, not more grease zerks. “There’s always some maintenance on any machine like this,” Huck responded.
“Here, at least, the grease fittings are all in the open and very easy to get at.” The system Huck displayed at Big Iron is designed specifically for 12 to 24 row 1770 and 1775 planters, which are available only through John Deere dealers. “I’m not saying you couldn’t put them on some other planter, but it would be a lot of work. You’d have to be a pretty good welder,” Huck said. The tracks were introduced last year, while the pressurized nitrogen shock absorbers were added this year to stabilize tension on the track and help prevent unwanted vertical action of the centre section. No modifications or welding are required in the installation, and the planter can easily be converted back to tires.
Forget garlic. In real life, a tomato can defeat a vampire. And researchers have now figured out the first step to vegetable triumph. The vampires are slim, tangling vines that look like splats of orange or yellow-green spaghetti after a toddler’s dinnertime tantrum. Botanically, the 200 or so Cuscuta species are morning glories gone bad. In the same family as the heavenly blue garden trumpets, the dodders, as they’re sometimes called, lose their roots about a week after sprouting and never grow real leaves. Why bother when you can drain food and water from the neighbors?
Bottom of Form
A dodder seedling, basically a bare stem, finds that first neighbor by writhing and groping (in slow plant time) toward attractive plant odors. “The Cuscuta can smell its victims,” says Markus Albert of the University of Tübingen in Germany. Depending on the dodder species, victims include asparagus, melons, sugar beets, petunias, garlic, chrysanthemums and oak trees. Even worse for civilization as we know it, some Cuscuta species vampirize coffee plants and grapevines.
The dodder plant attaches to a wild tomato’s stem and inserts teethlike haustoria to suck out nutrients (left). A genetic defense, the CuRe1 gene lets the plant fight off the dodder by forming a scab (right) the haustoria can’t penetrate. Certain dodders do kill tomato plants. But not the C. reflexa from Asia that Albert studies; instead, it gets its skinny little haustoria whipped. Haustoria are the organs that make plant parasitism possible. When a dodder seedling brushes against tasty prey, a haustorium disk forms and pushes out from the dodder stem with a fast-growing point. “It really looks like a vampire tooth,” Albert says. If the prey is, say, a soybean plant, it’s doomed. The growing dodder haustorium not only exerts force but also releases enzymes that weaken the bean’s tissue. Haustorium tip cells send out projections that grasp the bean’s inner ducts for water and nutrients, diverting so much that the bean starves. A tomato plant poked by a haustorium, however, panics. A patch of cells on the stem elongate and burst, forming a scab that stops the intruder. The haustorium stalls and eventually dies. A gene called CuRe1 lets the tomato recognize the dodder as a dire threat, Albert and colleagues report in the July 29 Science. They transferred the gene to a normally susceptible relative and — Ha! Bite that, vampire! Albert predicts additional biochemistry could be needed to dodder-proof other crops. But for starters, researchers now know the first step in protection: A tomato’s rare power to survive a scary vampire is the ability to get really scared itself.
When crop prices are slumping, it isn’t easy to change the norm. Growing corn and soybeans is what many of you know and do all too well. But look closely to see the cracks forming in the corn-soybean foundation that dominates the Midwest.
Farmers of a few generations ago grew a number of crops in addition to corn and soybeans. These may have included flax, clover, oats, or buckwheat, and these crops may have been harvested for grain, fed to livestock, or plowed under for green manure. Great-Grandpa was onto something. He didn’t have a lot of the agronomic problems that plague today’s farmers. Over time, however, farmers became less diversified, and focused on a few cash crops, says Dwayne Beck, who heads the Dakota Lakes Research Farm near Pierre, South Dakota. Government programs, the availability of commercial fertilizers, and improved machinery helped hasten that movement. “Farmers 150 years ago, used essentially zero fossil fuels,” Beck says. “Now we’ve gotten pretty good at taking fossil fuels and making stuff, then shipping it out. We’re mining energy. We fail to look at soil as a resource. It’s just there, a vessel that we take stuff out of.” Diversifying crop rotations can help make you more sustainable and add profit potential, too. Take the example of Dan Forgey, agronomy manager at Cronin Farms, near Gettysburg, South Dakota.
In the 1970s and 1980s, the farm averaged 30-bushel-per-acre winter and spring wheat, and 50-bushel-per-acre corn. They fallowed some land and worked the ground first with a sweep plow, and they later added a rodweeder. By 1991, the farm included 5,150 acres and employed four people. A quarter of their acres lay in fallow each year. “We thought it was the best we could do. We were good farmers!” Forgey says. At Beck’s urging, they switched from minimum-tillage to no-till and kept the same rotation: spring wheat, winter wheat, corn, and sunflowers. New problems emerged, though. “Cheatgrass figured out our crop rotation, so we changed it,” Forgey says. “We put three years of broadleaves into our crop rotation – rather than just two years – and got cheat under control.” That simple move spurred change on Cronin Farms. “I’ll fix an agronomic problem with crop rotation rather than use a chemical. It took me a while to learn that I needed to work with Mother Nature rather than against her,” Forgey says. “If you have an agronomic problem, you have given Mother Nature an opportunity,” Beck adds. “With herbicide-resistant crops, you might have thought you didn’t have to worry about crop rotation, and soon you had resistant weeds.”
There are plenty of reasons to not diversify the crop rotation. Having to change equipment to plant and harvest a new crop, plus find a market for them are two drawbacks. Farming is hard enough without diversifying enterprises. Adding a crop like wheat, for example, is particularly unappealing due to the commodity’s record-low prices (adjusted for parity).
However, Forgey believes there is opportunity, too. To date, his Cronin Farms operation has adopted more than 13 crop rotations, none of which is fixed. This includes more than 20 crops, including teff, field peas, lentils, forage sorghum, sunflowers, radishes, millet, sudan, field peas, and more. “I like the challenge of growing different crops, but I love the diversity they give the soil,” he continues. Furthermore, he has added cattle to the operation to consume some of those crops and to diversify the farm’s income stream. “I’ll fix an agronomic problem with crop rotation rather than use a chemical,” says Dan Forgey.
You may not choose to incorporate the array of crops that Cronin Farms does. However, tweaking the crop rotation just a little bit breaks up disease and pest cycles. “That’s an effect that’s really visible and easy to see. The impacts are there. People have seen those effects for centuries,” says Lisa Tiemann, assistant professor of soil biology at Michigan State University.
Studies at the University of Wisconsin show a 19% yield bump for corn and soybeans when grown in a rotation rather than in a continuous system. The reason has not been defined, but it is likely due, in part, to reduced disease and insect pressure.
Tiemann, meanwhile, believes yield increases can also be attributed to what happens in the soil.
She and her colleagues have studied more than 300 crop-rotation comparisons involving single-crop systems, two-crop systems, and more diverse systems. Adding one cash crop to a monoculture increases by 21% soil microbial biomass, or all the microorganisms living in the soil.
Further, organic carbon and organic nitrogen concentration tend to increase dramatically in soils on which diverse crops are planted, as opposed to a monoculture. In a crop rotation, Tiemann sees increased stability of larger soil aggregates, which indicates the formation and accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM). Add a cover crop to the system and soil organic matter accrues 15 times faster than rotations without a cover crop, she adds. It’s hard to visualize diversity within the soil, and Tiemann reckons it may be a few years before you see financial gain due to crop rotation. She points out, however, that you can reverse the decline in SOM by incorporating crop diversity. “Whenever soil is tilled, you lose organic matter. If you want to start thinking about building it, do it now,” she says. Building SOM by 1% has real benefits. In 1 acre, 10,000 pounds of soil carbon – and 1,000 pounds more inorganic nitrogen – are added. Also, water-holding capacity in those soils increases, up to ¾ inch more per foot.
South Dakota’s Forgey notes that SOM levels average 5.1% in native grass near Gettysburg. In 2001, soils that had been farmed conventionally for years had an average SOM of 2.8%. By 2012, SOM in those same soils increased to 4.1%. “You may not see an economic advantage right now, but think about the future and the legacy you’ll leave behind,” Tiemann says.
According to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good, the recent recovery in soybean prices has been led by soybean oil prices, with December 2016 futures now 22 percent above the late July low and above the previous high price established in April. December soybean meal futures are about 6 percent above the late September low and 25 percent below the June peak. “Soybean oil prices have been supported by expanding world vegetable oil trade and consumption and higher prices of competing vegetable oils,” Good says. “Both soybean oil futures and palm oil prices have reached the highest level in more than two years. Soybean prices have also received support from strong nearby export demand for U.S. soybeans stemming from the shortfall in South American production this year and from continued large purchases by China.”
Export inspections during the first seven weeks of the marketing year are estimated at 384 million bushels, 37 million above the total inspections a year ago. Unshipped export sales as of Oct. 13 were reported at 884 million bushels compared to 703 million a year earlier. China accounted for about 41 percent of the unshipped sales and unknown destinations, which may also be dominated by China, accounted for 44 percent of the unshipped sales. “Soybean prices may have also received some support from the September domestic soybean crush that was larger than expected,” Good says. “The National Oilseed Processors Association reported that its members crushed 129.4 million bushels of soybeans in September, 2 percent more than crushed in September 2015. The USDA’s Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report to be released on Nov. 3 is expected to confirm that the September crush was the largest since 2007.
As U of I economist Todd Hubbs pointed out in last week’s Weekly Outlook , soybean prices for the remainder of the marketing year will be heavily influenced by the strength of export demand, particularly from China, and prospects for South American production. Production prospects will be influenced by the unfolding estimates of planted acreage and by weather and yield prospects. Some are expecting Brazilian soybean acreage to exceed the current USDA projection, but there is also increasing chatter about the prospects for a strengthening La Niña episode and the potential for unfavorable growing season weather in South America. Good says in the near term, soybean prices will also be influenced by the USDA’s U.S. soybean production forecast to be released on Nov. 9. The October forecast was for a crop of 4.269 billion bushels, 68 million bushels larger than the September forecast and 209 million bushels larger than the August forecast. The U.S. average yield forecast increased from 48.9 bushels in August to 50.6 bushels in September and 51.4 bushels in October.
“Based on widespread yield reports, there is a general expectation that the yield forecast will increase again in November,” Good says. “History supports that expectation as well. In the previous 40 years, the U.S. average yield forecast increased in September and again in October, as was the case this year, in 12 years. In 11 of those 12 years, the November yield forecast exceeded the October forecast. The increase ranged from 0.2 to 1.1 bushels and averaged 0.7 bushels. The lone exception was in 1981, when the November yield forecast was 0.5 bushel below the October forecast.”
According to Good, in those 11 years when the yield forecast increased in November, the yield estimate released in January after harvest exceeded the November forecast in seven years, was unchanged once, and declined in three years. The January increase ranged from 0.3 to 0.7 bushel and the decline ranged from 0.1 to 0.3 bushel. In 1981, when the November forecast was below the October forecast, the January yield estimate was 0.4 bushel above the November forecast.
“History points to a November U.S soybean production forecast that is 20 to 90 million bushels above the October forecast,” Good says. “If soybean production in South America rebounds as forecast, any increase in the U.S production estimate is likely to result in a forecast of year-ending stocks to exceed the current projection of 395 million bushels. The impact of larger year-ending stocks would be compounded by an increase in soybean acreage in the U.S. next year.
“There will continue to be a lot of moving parts to the soybean price picture with the potential for a wide trading range over the next several months,” Good says. “From a risk management standpoint, current prices offer a relatively good return for producers who benefitted from above average yields this year. November 2017 futures approaching $10 per bushel also deserve a look, particularly by those intending to increase soybean acreage in 2017.”
The EPA recently approved a new, low-volatile dicamba formulation (Xtendimax with VaporGrip Technology) for dicamba-resistant soybeans. While an additional chemical tool will provide another option for managing herbicide-resistant weeds, there are concerns with off-target drift. Widespread injury associated with off-target movement could cause greater restrictions or a loss of these technologies along with additional restrictions on alternative products.
EPA registers low-volatile dicamba formulation
“Without question, there are instances and scenarios in which dicamba will improve control of certain weed species, but dicamba will not bring back the good ol’ days of post-only weed-control programs in soybean,” says University of Illinois Extension weed specialist Aaron Hager. Current expectations of what this technology can accomplish tend to be a bit more optimistic than what the technology actually will be able to deliver, says Hager. It’s important to keep in mind where it fits, the realities, and the concerns of the technology. “All herbicides have risks, especially when used over large areas of the landscape,” say Iowa State University Extension weed scientist Bob Hartzler and Extension weed specialist Mike Owen in a university integrated crop-management article. “Synthetic auxin herbicides (Group 4) can cause significant plant injury at fractions of normal use rates, resulting in a higher risk of off-target injury than with most herbicides.”
The new dicamba formulations that are either approved or pending approval have lower vapor pressures than earlier dicamba formulations. The lower vapor pressure reduces, but does not eliminate, the potential for off-target movement via volatilization, say Hartzler and Owen.
Applicators must become familiar with and follow the application practices specified on the new product labels. Several of the restrictions involve significant changes in typical application procedures. The widespread injury to soybeans, horticultural crops, and other sensitive plants that occurred during 2016 in Missouri and other states due to illegal applications of dicamba on RR2 Xtend soybean illustrates the risks when the proper stewardship is not practiced, say Hartzler and Owen. The label restrictions will help reduce risks associated with particle drift.
It’s important to follow the label regarding the following:
Another concern for potential crop injury from dicamba is from residue being left in the sprayer when the applicator moves from an RR2 Xtend soybean field to nondicamba-resistant soybean fields. Hager is concerned with the confusion about particle drift and volatilization. “While the newly labeled formulation is reportedly less likely to volatilize after application, there is absolutely nothing unique about the formulation that will reduce physical drift during application,” says Hager. “Off-target movement of dicamba is of particular concern due to the number of sensitive dicot species grown in Illinois. The new formulation of dicamba is no more likely to drift than any other herbicide formulation, but the symptoms that indicate drift did occur can be induced at extremely low concentrations of dicamba. Several years ago, we were able to induce soybean leaves to cup with as little as 1/10,000 pint of dicamba,” he says. Hager says the reports suggest that the use of older, more volatile dicamba formulations was largely responsible for the widespread off-target injury that occurred in areas of the mid-South during 2016, but volatility is generally a minor component of off-target movement when compared with actual physical drift during application.
More Durum May Come To Those Who Wait
Wet weather may have slowed crop development and delayed harvest, but durum is determined to be worth the wait with above-average yields. “We’re looking at some fairly high yields given the early estimates… average yields should come in at 47.5 to 48 bushels per acre this year,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office of Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Produits. “That’s up from last year, which was 34.4 (bushels per acre).” Some durum in Alberta and along the Saskatchewan border may ready for harvest in late August, but the bulk of crops should be harvested starting around Sept. 10, he said. “We’re going to be very sensitive to some rains, but I think the frost risk is quite low… probably only 30 per cent of the crop will be vulnerable to frost risk this year,” he said.
With a large quantity can come problems with quality — something Klassen said they are keeping an eye on. “We’re watching how the fusarium develops and how much farmers are spraying…as you go farther west the fusarium issue seems to be quite a bit less… in the heart of the durum area it seems to be okay,” he said. “There is a large uncertainty as to how that will affect quality.” Vitreousness is also expected to be an issue, which usually shows up when yields are high because protein in durum is lower, which could also be a downgrading factor, he said.
However, prices are still down $2-$3 a bushel from last year as the market focuses on yield potential, he said. “Prices for durum in (Canada) are $6 to $6.50 (per bushel) in the elevator system,” Klassen said. “We’ve got a fairly good crop coming in Canada and the U.S. as far as yield goes, and the pressure on the market is coming from anticipation of greater yields.” The market is slow right now, which is normal for this time of year, Klassen said, but he expects to see more activity as business picks up in September. “Quality has taken a backseat here but will likely come to the forefront in the next month…that’s when you could see the market take some direction from the quality.”
